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About the HSBC Global Connections report — Modelled by Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC’s own analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full bilateral set of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods, and balances between 180 pairs of countries. Oxford Economics produces a global report for HSBC, plus regional reports and country specific reports on the following 23 countries: Hong Kong, China, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Singapore, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, UK, France, Turkey, Germany, Poland, Ireland, UAE, Saudi Arabia, & Egypt.
Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework that ensures full consistency between all economies, in part driven by trade linkages. The forecasts take into account factors such as the rate of demand growth in the destination market and the exporter’s competitiveness. Exports, imports and trade balances are identified, with both historical estimates and forecasts for the periods 2014–16, 2017–20 and 2021–30.
Oxford Economics – formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting – was founded in 1981 to provide independent forecasting and analysis tailored to the needs of economists and planners in government and business. It is now one of the world’s leading providers of economic analysis, advice and models, with over 500 clients. Oxford Economics commands a high degree of professional and technical expertise, both in its own staff of over 70 professionals based in Oxford, London, Belfast, Paris, the UAE, Singapore, Philadelphia and New York, and through its close links with Oxford University and a range of partner institutions in Europe and the US.
About the HSBC Trade Confidence Index:
The Trade Confidence Index – conducted by TNS on behalf of HSBC – covers 6390 exporters, importers and traders in 21 countries Australia, India, Hong Kong, mainland China, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia.With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world’s consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world.
The Trade Forecast Tool enables you to analyse current confidence and future trends in world trade.
With the tool you can:
Explore a worldwide or country overview of the short-term confidence or a long-term forecast for international export and import trade
Find out which settlement currencies are expected to dominate international trade
Learn about the key import and export trade routes between countries and within regions
Get industry insights on which sectors are driving global export growth
Short-term confidence: Trade Confidence Index
The Trade Confidence Index (TCI) is a quantitative indicator of the short-term outlook for global trade. The survey is the largest of its kind and conducted by global market research specialists, TNS, on behalf of HSBC. Small and mid-market businesses in key regions are interviewed about their expectations for global trade and business growth over the next six months to provide an overview of short-term trading conditions in market confidence.
Long-term forecast: Trade Forecast Data
The Trade Forecast Data is a quantitative indicator of the long-term outlook for global trade. Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC’s own analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full bilateral set of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods.
Short-term data from September 2014.
Long-term data from May 2015.
All numbers have been rounded to the nearest whole number.
Forecast data modelled by Oxford Economics based on HSBC's Global Research macro data. The HSBC Trade Confidence Index is conducted by TNS on behalf of HSBC in a total of 23 markets. Disclaimer